On Monday, June 15, Brent oil became cheaper by 5% to $82.8 per barrel, gold became more expensive by 2.8%, to $4,357.8 per ounce, Wall Street is growing — the S&P 500 futures gained 1.2%. Global markets are assessing the flow of news from the Middle East. The US and Iran announced the achievement of a temporary agreement, which is intended to end the 100-day war and open the Strait of Hormuz. Global markets demonstrated a classic reaction to the removal of the geopolitical premium. Similar dynamics were shown by Asian markets: the Japanese Nikkei-225 index approached a historical maximum.
On Tuesday, June 16, the geopolitical factor remained the same, but the trend of declining prices persisted, prices continued adjustment, Brent costs $81.39, retreating by approximately 2% from yesterday's prices. A similar situation is with WTI Crude, which costs $78.7 bar. Thus, the role of the geopolitical factor is not the main one today in forming the main trends of the market.

Crude oil production of OPEC+ fell in May of this year to 28.428 and today to a record low level in the entire history of observations, the production of OPEC declined, amounting to only 16.13 million barrels per day. According to the publication, this is the lowest indicator since 2000. On the contrary, thanks to the leadership of President Trump, oil and gas production in the US reached record high levels. In 2025, crude oil production in the US reached a historical maximum of 13.6 million barrels per day — and it is expected that this trend will continue in 2026.

Global oil production volume (along with other liquid hydrocarbons) in 2025 amounted to approximately 102.5 million barrels per day. At the same time, the share of OPEC+ countries reached almost 56% of global volumes. Global oil production volume in 2026, according to forecasts of leading analytical agencies, is at the level from 99 to 104.7 million barrels per day, the share of OPEC+ countries in global oil production constitutes now about 35–40%.

"Markets have been waiting for this news for several months, and relief is already being felt," Bloomberg quotes Josh Gilbert, leading analyst at eToro for APAC and the Middle East. However, he continues, speaking about full confidence in the stability of peace is premature: "Investors' nerves will not calm down until the agreement is signed."

The fact of the matter is that the peace agreement between the US and Iran so far exists only in words: the parties will publish the official text only after the signing on June 19 in Switzerland. In addition, the interpretation of the arrangements by Washington and Tehran differs cardinally. If Trump speaks of a "Great Deal that brings peace," the Iranian media declare a "US capitulation" and emphasize that control over the strait will allegedly be retained by Iran and Oman.

As for the restoration of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, here the markets have so far taken a wait-and-see position. Dozens of tankers are idling in the region, hundreds of ships are waiting for the opportunity to leave the Persian Gulf. As Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital emphasizes, "physical flows can be launched quickly, but trust does not return that quickly." In practice, according to Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., the return of oil and gas volumes to pre-war levels may take up to three months: shipowners and insurers are in no hurry to return without guarantees of safety and transparency of conditions.

Oil prices are declining sharply on Monday on information about the achievement by the authorities of the US and Iran of arrangements that will allow ending hostilities in the Middle East and restoring the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Representatives of the two countries will sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland, reported the Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif. Pakistan acts as a mediator in the negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

The memorandum is aimed primarily at the cessation of hostilities. The sharpest issues, such as the fate of the Iranian nuclear program, the parties will discuss at later stages. According to the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran Kazem Gharibabadi, 60 days after the signing ceremony are allocated for this.

By 14:30 Moscow time, August futures for Brent were becoming cheaper on the London ICE Futures exchange by $4.39 (5.03%) to $82.94 per barrel.
July futures for WTI by this time were becoming cheaper on the NYMEX exchange by $4.56 (5.37%), to $80.32 per barrel.
Earlier during the trading, the price of Brent dropped to $82.52 per barrel, WTI — to $79.73 per barrel. Prices are at minimums since March 10.

Caspian Energy (CE): Your Excellency, before we turn to the matters of Latvian-Azerbaijani relations, could you kindly share with us your journey into diplomacy? What inspired you to pursue this path, and what experiences have prepared you for your current mission here in Azerbaijan?

Edgars Skuja, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Latvia to the Republic of Azerbaijan: First of all, I would like to thank you for the opportunity to share the information about Latvia and Azerbaijan.

When you ask about my appointment, I should say that there was a period in my career when I worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia, and I was responsible for the Latvian-Azerbaijani bilateral relations. I had a wonderful opportunity to visit Azerbaijan and participate in several high-level meetings as part of the delegations. I really enjoyed visiting Azerbaijan, so when I was asked about my view on my nomination as Ambassador to your country, I was delighted and agreed immediately.

In general, I started my career at the Foreign Ministry in 1993, and this is my sixth appointment as Ambassador. I arrived in Baku directly from Brussels in September 2023, having completed my diplomatic mission to NATO.

Caspian Energy (CE): Your Excellency, what inspired you to pursue diplomacy?

Kęstutis Vaškelevičius, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Lithuania to the Azerbaijan Republic: I became interested in diplomacy via history. As a teenager, I was fascinated by the stories my father used to tell me about Lithuanian partisans fighting Soviet occupation in the nearby forests and villages of where my father was born. History taught me about the importance of international relations and diplomacy.

CE: Why is this mission in Azerbaijan significant for you?
Kęstutis Vaškelevičius: Again, history might help to reveal the importance of Lithuania-Azerbaijan relations. There were moments in our relationships, in particular in 1989-1991, when mutual understanding and solidarity helped our nations on our road to freedom. Today, both Lithuania and Azerbaijan are independent successful countries. But it doesn’t mean that challenges to our independence are over. Just across our borders, we see dangerous imperialistic ambitions. History reminds us that even the largest aggressor is afraid of solidarity among free nations. The current geopolitical environment calls for more solidarity among freedom-loving nations.

Today, I also appreciate Azerbaijan’s dynamic pace of development and its growing international role. Therefore, partnerships between Lithuania-Azerbaijan, as well as the EU and Azerbaijan, are also growing in importance. These partnerships can bring a significant contribution to strengthening the principles of international law, in isolating aggressors and in helping to advance peace and prosperity in our region and beyond.

An important part of my mission is also contributing to strengthening the friendship between the Lithuanian and Azerbaijani people. Better understanding and appreciating the rich history and culture of our peoples is something very valuable to the bilateral Lithuanian-Azerbaijani agenda.

The United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026; the decision was made against the backdrop of the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE has long been considered an influential participant in OPEC+. In the entire 65-year history of OPEC, this is the first withdrawal from the organization by one of its largest producers. Previously, according to the organization’s data, Gabon terminated its membership in January 1995. However, in July 2016, it rejoined the Organization. Qatar terminated its membership on January 1, 2019. Angola withdrew from the composition on January 1, 2024.

Along with Saudi Arabia, the country played the role of one of the key swing producers that can promptly change production volumes and influence the balance of the global market. In recent years, the UAE has actively invested in expanding oil infrastructure and production capacities. Prior to the blockade of the strait in February 2026, production amounted to 3.41 million bpd. This is third place after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which corresponds to: 11.9% of all OPEC production, 8% of OPEC+ countries, and about 3–4% of global production. Prior to this, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) agreed to increase oil production limits in May by 206 thousand bpd. This follows from a joint statement of eight countries—Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—published on Sunday, April 5, following a video conference. In early April, the countries made a decision on the adjustment of oil production volumes to "maintain stability in the market," the statement says. At the last such meeting, which took place in March, OPEC+ members had already increased limits by 206 thousand bpd.
Earlier, the Reuters agency, citing sources, wrote that the increase in production by OPEC+ countries should serve as a signal to the global market of the readiness for further ramp-up of oil production. In particular, the increase in May quotas should help stabilize the sentiments of petroleum product buyers against the backdrop of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the war of the US and Israel with Iran, which have already led to an energy crisis. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman in September 2025 completed the early exit from cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, and in October began the gradual phase-out of the additional production restriction of another 1.65 million barrels. For January-March 2026, the OPEC+ countries took a pause in the production increase.
The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for May 3.
Against the backdrop of the geopolitical crisis and intensifying political instability in the Middle East, the consequence of which has been high market volatility, large organizations such as OPEC+ cannot respond flexibly to the current situation, which is fully available to exporters not belonging to OPEC. Since the price break-even points for decision-making according to fiscal deficit indicators differ among OPEC+ countries, more and more time is required to coordinate a consistent and coordinated policy. On the other hand, the very conjuncture of the oil market is also changing inevitably in the case of the oil industry, which requires a quick reaction from the supplier. In particular, Thailand, which previously imported about half of its oil from Persian Gulf countries, has begun negotiations with Russia. India, for the first time in seven years, purchased oil from Iran. To stabilize the situation in the market, the USA also temporarily suspended the action of sanctions on oil from Russia that was loaded onto tankers before March 12, 2026.
Therefore, the longer the crisis lasts, the greater the probability of the collapse of OPEC+ up to the complete termination of its existence. For now, hypothetically, having lost the main lever of price regulation, the market will acquire even greater volatility and plunge into an abyss of uncontrolled growth and fall of prices and various kinds of market costs. Further, the resolution of the issue of energy security will call into question the globalization of the market, which will require new trade alliances, regulations of internal budgets of countries and trade, a review of investment and fiscal policy; national banks will strengthen regulation, the inevitable victim of which will be the private sector and knowledge-intensive industries; the market will undergo changes, and energy will become a luxury for the 1 billion people already lacking access to electricity.

From OPEC History: At the Baghdad Conference, which took place on September 10–14, 1960, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was established. Over 65 years, it has become the largest alliance, whose members control 80% of all proven raw material reserves on the planet and 64% of its global production (and even more taking into account the OPEC+ participant countries).

OPEC was founded on September 14, 1960, by five countries: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Later, they were joined by Libya (1962), the UAE (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Gabon (1975), Equatorial Guinea (2017), and Congo (2018). In September 1965, the headquarters of the alliance was moved to Vienna.

In December 2016, the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) was signed, within the framework of which members of the organization and 10 exporting countries not belonging to the alliance united with the goal of restoring the oil market. The new informal format received the name OPEC+. Now OPEC includes 12 countries, and another 11, including Russia, participate in the expanded format.

The leaders in oil exports are Saudi Arabia (6 million bpd, 14% of the total volume), Russia (4.5 million bpd, 10.5%), the USA (4.1 million bpd, 9.5%), the UAE 3-3.5 million bpd (4% of world production), Canada (3.6 million bpd, 8.2%), and Iraq (3.4 million bpd, 7.8%). In total, they account for 50% of all oil export.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its April edition of the "Oil Market Report" (OMR), noted that global oil supplies fell sharply in March by 10.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 97 mb/d. Oil production by OPEC+ countries dropped by 9.4 mb/d compared to the previous month to 42.4 mb/d, while supplies from non-OPEC+ countries decreased by 770,000 barrels per day to 54.7 mb/d. The IEA report also estimates that these disruptions could lead to a loss of 440 million barrels in April.

Oil exports from Persian Gulf countries fell sharply, with total losses exceeding 13 million barrels per day. Deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz in early April averaged about 3.8 million barrels per day, compared to more than 20 million barrels per day in February. Exports via alternative routes—primarily from the west coast of Saudi Arabia and Fujairah on the east coast of the UAE, as well as via the ITP pipeline running from Iraq to Ceyhan in Türkiye — increased to 7.2 million barrels per day from less than 4 million barrels per day before the war.

The supply shock led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The price of North Sea Dated oil was around $130 per barrel, which is approximately $60 above pre-conflict levels, while physical oil prices jumped to $150 per barrel, significantly exceeding futures prices. Oil product markets also tightened, with middle distillate prices in Singapore reaching above $290 per barrel.

According to IEA forecasts, global oil demand in 2026 will contract by 80,000 barrels per day, which is 730,000 barrels per day less than was predicted last month. In March, demand fell by 800,000 barrels per day year-on-year, and a decrease of 2.3 million barrels per day is projected for April. The IEA estimates that the 1.5 million barrel per day year-on-year drop in the second quarter of 2026 will be the sharpest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to IEA data, the most notable reduction is observed in the petrochemical feedstock segment. In April, demand for LPG/ethane and naphtha decreased by 1.8 mb/d, while demand for transport fuels such as gasoil, gasoline, and jet fuel fell by approximately 1% in each case.

Regional impacts vary. Demand in OECD countries is projected to decline by 240,000 barrels per day in 2026, while demand in non-OECD countries will grow by 150,000 barrels per day, partially offset by a decline of 250,000 barrels per day in the Middle East. Demand in China is projected to increase by 80,000 barrels per day, and in India by 130,000 barrels per day, while the Middle East recorded the largest regional contraction of 250,000 barrels per day.

Oil inventories were drawn down to compensate for the supply deficit. Global observed oil inventories decreased by 85 million barrels in March, including 205 million barrels outside the Persian Gulf. At the same time, floating storage in the Middle East increased by 100 million barrels, and onshore crude oil stocks in the region rose by 20 million barrels, with China adding 40 million barrels of crude oil to its storage facilities.

In April, refineries in the Middle East and Asia, experiencing feedstock shortages, reduced processing volumes by approximately 6 million barrels per day to 77.2 million barrels per day. On average, global oil refinery throughput is expected to decrease by 1 million barrels per day in 2026 to 82.9 million barrels per day.
The two-week truce announced on April 7 brought only limited relief; however, uncertainty remains as to whether it will lead to a sustainable recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA noted. The U.S. blockade of vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports will further complicate the situation.

The IEA stated that the potential further path of developments could be described by two scenarios. In the base case scenario, oil supplies gradually resume from May, with the market balance shifting to a surplus of 2.5 mb/d in the second half of 2026. In a prolonged crisis scenario, the supply deficit persists, requiring a stock draw of 6 mb/d and leading to cumulative losses approaching 2 billion barrels by the end of the year. The trajectory of the Strait of Hormuz remains the central factor determining the recovery of supplies, price stability, and the overall outlook for global oil markets, the IEA report says.

Over the last seven years, Kazakhstan's agricultural output has nearly doubled

The gross agricultural output in Kazakhstan has increased nearly twofold over the past seven years — rising from 5.2 trillion tenge in 2019 to 9.8 trillion tenge in 2025. This was reported by Kazinform, citing the Ministry of Agriculture. These results were made possible by the strategic development course for the agro-industrial complex set by the Head of State, as well as comprehensive government support measures for the industry.
A significant impact was made by the large-scale financial support provided to farmers. Driven by concessional loans — the volume of which reached 1 trillion tenge — the agricultural sector has demonstrated record-breaking indicators for the second consecutive year, confirming the stability and efficiency of the agrarian industry.
The positive dynamics were the result of enhanced technological equipment in agriculture, the expansion of modern agricultural technologies, the use of high-quality seed material, and an increase in the volume of fertilizer application.
Thanks to the saturation of the sector with preferential financial resources, it was possible to significantly expand the coverage of farmers with financing — around 14,000 agricultural producers gained access to affordable credit funds. This allowed domestic farmers to improve the quality of planning and the discipline in fulfilling financial obligations.
In 2025, a record harvest of oilseeds was also achieved — 4.9 million tons, along with 1 million tons of legumes. A total of 2.8 million tons of potatoes, 3.7 million tons of vegetables, and 2.5 million tons of melon crops were harvested. The gross harvest of raw cotton amounted to 466,000 tons with a yield of 3.2 tons per hectare—the highest figure in the last 18 years.
The level of equipment renewal increased from 5.5% to 6.5%. The processing industry also shows significant growth. By the end of 2025, the production volume of food products amounted to 3.9 trillion tenge, which is 8% higher than the 2024 level (3.3 trillion tenge).
Compared to 2019, food production has grown 2.3 times — from 1.7 trillion to 3.9 trillion tenge.
Today, the share of food production accounts for 13% of the structure of the manufacturing industry and 6% of the total industrial production.
In recent years, the output of key products has increased significantly: butter production doubled, vegetable oil increased 1.9 times, cheese and curd by 1.7 times, and sausage products by 43.3%. Furthermore, processed milk output rose by 16.4%, flour by 10.7%, and pasta products by 1.4%.
At present, the self-sufficiency of the domestic market for the 24 primary food commodities stands at 80–100% or higher, driven by domestic production.
To stabilize prices for socially significant food products, regions have contracted 246,900 tons of produce, including potatoes, onions, cabbage, and carrots. Sales are conducted through retail chains, social grocery stores, and distribution outlets of Social-Entrepreneurial Corporations at fixed, reduced prices.
As of March 11, 153,400 tons of produce have already been sold, including 89,900 tons of potatoes, 17,400 tons of onions, 22,000 tons of carrots, and 24,100 tons of cabbage.
According to official statistics, the price index for socially significant food products remains stable. Price monitoring and control over the adherence to the trade margin for socially significant food products, not exceeding 15% of the producer's price, is carried out on an ongoing basis.
Systemic state support aimed at diversifying production and increasing the share of high-value-added products has also had a positive impact on the export performance of the sector. For the first time in the last 10 years, Kazakhstan's agribusiness sector export reached 7 billion US dollars, exceeding last year's figure by 37%. The harvested crop is sufficient to fully meet the needs of the domestic market and expand export supplies. In the 2024–2025 marketing year, 15.3 million tons of grain were exported, which is almost 60% higher than the same period last year (9.6 million tons) and represents the highest export figure in the last 20 years.
All of this indicates that Kazakhstan's agricultural sector is confidently strengthening its position as one of the key drivers of the country’s economic development.
As previously reported, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan has launched preferential livestock financing at 6%.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released its natural gas market report for the first quarter of 2025. The report indicates that global demand for natural gas grew steadily in 2024, though the growth rate is expected to slow in 2025, reaching approximately 4.286 trillion cubic meters. It is projected that the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will continue to grow into 2026, while natural gas consumption is set to keep rising, potentially breaking historical records. Notably, gas prices spiked in the first half of 2025 due to supply shortages but declined in the second half of the year as LNG production increased in the U.S. and other regions.

Driven by expanding industrial activity, natural gas consumption in Africa increased by 3% in 2025 and is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2026. However, in terms of global regional consumption in 2025, the highest volumes are attributed to North America and Asia, while Africa's consumption remains relatively low. Specifically, North America will consume 1.175 trillion cubic meters, the Asia-Pacific region will consume 982 billion cubic meters, the Middle East 639 billion cubic meters, Europe 522 billion cubic meters, Africa 175 billion cubic meters, and Latin America 154 billion cubic meters. Caspian Energy Media reports, citing shpgx.com.

Furthermore, the report shows that although Africa's LNG exports decreased in 2025, new exporting countries have emerged. Nigeria became Africa's largest LNG exporter, while recently constructed Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) facilities in the Republic of the Congo and Senegal have expanded their capacities. Mauritania has also emerged as a new LNG exporter. In addition, Angola, Mozambique, and Nigeria have demonstrated further expansion of their LNG business operations.

African LNG exports decreased by 15% in 2025, driven by factors such as falling exports from Algeria and rising imports from Egypt. Algeria's LNG exports in 2025 dropped by 18% compared to 2024, a decline attributed to growing domestic demand, aging oilfield infrastructure, and the necessity of conducting scheduled maintenance. Furthermore, natural gas production in Egypt significantly decreased while domestic demand grew, resulting in LNG imports reaching 12.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2025. Approximately 80% of these imports originated from the United States. Additionally, Egypt imported 8.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Israel via pipeline. Although Mozambique continues to face security challenges and financing uncertainty, new LNG projects are expected to come online in 2028.

On Thursday, March 5, China unveiled its main development goals for the period 2026-2030 in a government work report presented for review at the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress.
According to the report, over the next five years, China aims to maintain GDP growth within a rational range and set annual targets based on specific conditions. Caspian Energy Media reports with reference to Chinese Xinhua.

This will lay a solid foundation for doubling GDP by 2035 compared to the 2020 level and achieving the status of a moderately developed country, the report states. China has set a target to ensure economic growth of 4.5-5 percent in 2026 and will strive to exceed this target in practice. This is stated in the government work report presented on Thursday for review at the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress.

According to the report, China has outlined other key development targets for the current year: the surveyed urban unemployment rate is set at approximately 5.5%; over 12 million new urban jobs are to be created; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by around 2%; personal income is projected to grow in step with economic growth; the balance of payments will remain generally stable; grain output is targeted to reach approximately 700 million tonnes; and energy consumption per unit of GDP (carbon intensity) is to be reduced by about 3.8%.

To ensure innovative and 'green' development, annual spending in these areas is projected to increase by over 7%, while overall carbon intensity of GDP is targeted to decrease by 17% during the 2026–2030 period.
According to the report, China will also increase the share of added value from key sectors of the digital economy in GDP to 12.5 percent, and raise the expected average life expectancy of the population to 80 years.
To ensure the effective implementation of the goals and objectives of the 15th Five-Year Plan, China has put forward a total of 109 major projects across six sectors, such as directing the development of productive forces of a new quality and ensuring and improving the well-being of the people, the report says.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its February Oil Market Report, stated that global oil supply fell by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, dropping to a total of 106.6 million bpd. This decline was driven by factors such as escalating geopolitical tensions, blizzards and extreme temperatures in North America, as well as reduced oil exports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, recently surpassed the $70 per barrel mark, reaching a new high since September 2025.
Russian oil supplies saw a sharp decrease of 350,000 bpd in January, as its primary buyers reduced imports under pressure from expanded US and EU sanctions. In particular, Indian oil refineries have intensified their efforts to secure alternative supply sources, which has had the most significant impact on Russian oil exports. Indian imports of Russian oil fell to 1.1 million bpd in January, marking the lowest level since November 2022 and significantly trailing the 2025 average of 1.7 million bpd.
Venezuelan oil production in January decreased by 210,000 bpd compared to the previous month, totaling 780,000 bpd. However, the market anticipates a swift recovery in Venezuelan output following the US government's authorization for US-registered companies to export Venezuelan crude.
Furthermore, extreme cold weather in January led to the shut-in of over 1 million bpd of production capacity in North America. Operations at Kazakhstan’s key oil export terminals have been suspended for an extended period since last November. In January, Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, Tengiz, was forced to temporarily halt operations due to a fire. This incident resulted in a reduction of light crude supply and contributed to the rise in international oil prices. Caspian Energy Media reports with reference to shpgx.com.
The report indicates that global refinery throughput in January of this year declined to 85.7 million bpd, down from a record high of 86.3 million bpd in December 2025. This decrease was attributed to seasonal maintenance and a decline in refining margins.
Global oil inventories increased by 37 million barrels in December 2025, bringing the total inventory growth for the year to 477 million barrels. In OECD countries, oil stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels last December—a counter-seasonal increase that, for the first time since 2021, exceeded the five-year average. It is projected that global oil inventories will increase by an additional 49 million barrels in January.
The report forecasts a significant recovery in global oil supply through the end of 2026, following the sharp decline seen in January. Global oil demand is projected to grow by 850,000 bpd in 2026, up from 770,000 bpd in 2025. This demand growth will be driven entirely by non-OECD countries. Furthermore, petrochemical feedstocks are expected to account for more than 50% of the demand growth in 2026, compared to one-third in 2025.
Following a global production increase of nearly 3.1 million bpd in 2025, the report estimates that world oil output will rise by 2.4 million bpd in 2026, reaching a total of 108.6 million bpd. This growth is expected to be split equally between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producing nations. Finally, global refinery throughput is projected to grow by an average of 790,000 bpd in 2026, reaching 84.6 million bpd, primarily driven by capacity increases in non-OECD countries.

Meanwhile, oil-producing nations within OPEC+ have reaffirmed their plan to maintain current production quotas through the end of March this year. Against this backdrop, global oil supplies are expected to recover in the coming months. Overall, world oil supply is projected to increase by 2.4 million bpd this year, with non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ countries each contributing 50% of this growth, provided that OPEC+ adheres to its existing production agreement.
Due to economic uncertainty and rising oil prices dampening consumption, the report slightly revised down the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 850,000 bpd. China remains the largest source of growth, with an annual increase of approximately 200,000 bpd.
The report indicates that due to a persistent supply surplus, global oil inventories increased by an additional 37 million barrels in December 2025, reaching a record level of 477 million barrels for the year. However, given the seasonal decline in refinery utilization rates from the record highs seen in December, alongside the ongoing recovery in oil supply, the shifting dynamics of global oil supply and demand remain to be fully evaluated.

Growth rates slowed in 2025, while inflation accelerated. Hydrocarbon production declined significantly last year, and growth in the non-resource sector decelerated due to the indirect impact of falling hydrocarbon prices and the normalization of investment from previous high levels. Overall, real GDP growth slowed to 1.4%, compared to 4.2% in 2024.

Driven largely by external factors, inflation temporarily exceeded the upper limit of the target range before returning to within that range in the second half of 2025. Credit growth slowed significantly in 2025, while banks remain well-capitalized and profitable. The combined reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) and the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) increased from $70 billion at the end of 2024 to $85 billion by the end of 2025.
Looking ahead, GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 amid continued weakness in oil and gas production and a slight acceleration in non-oil GDP growth, before stabilizing at 2.5% in the medium term. Inflation is projected to decline to 5.0% by the end of 2026 and to 4.0% by the end of 2027, provided that external inflationary pressures ease and fiscal consolidation continues.
The external position is expected to weaken, with the trade surplus narrowing due to declining oil production. However, the current account balance is projected to remain positive throughout 2026–2027. The combined reserves of the CBA and SOFAZ will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. According to the IMF mission’s February report, risks to the outlook remain generally balanced, though external uncertainty remains high.
"Medium-term fiscal consolidation is appropriate and will ensure equity while supporting external sustainability. A clear and comprehensive strategy, based on the identification of specific revenue-enhancing and expenditure-management measures, will bolster the credibility of fiscal consolidation. It is necessary to continue efforts to improve the profitability of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and reduce subsidies, rationalize tax incentives, and strengthen tax administration and compliance monitoring," the document states.

“While inflation is projected to decline, careful monitoring of inflationary risks and responsiveness to inflationary surprises will be essential, given heightened external uncertainty and the still-evolving transmission of monetary policy to the economy. Interbank rates remain close to the policy rate, reflecting the Central Bank’s successful management of excess liquidity. Substantially improving the transmission of monetary policy to the broader economy will require further development of the risk-free yield curve and continued efforts to address long-standing structural issues, such as dollarization, high operating costs, and low competition within the banking sector.”

Maintaining the current level of the countercyclical capital buffer is appropriate given the slowdown in credit growth, while the implementation of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and the planned introduction of the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) will contribute to the resilience of the banking sector. The recent implementation of risk-based supervision will strengthen prudential oversight and, along with the gradual rollout of Basel III and the ongoing improvement of the financial safety net, will bolster financial stability and further enhance public confidence in the banking sector."

"Azerbaijan is appropriately focusing on economic diversification. Expanding the role of the private sector in this diversification, including through the attraction of foreign direct investment, requires deepening capital markets to broaden private sector access to financing and enhancing labor productivity through investment in human capital. Alongside recent progress in monitoring the performance of state-owned enterprises, reducing the role of regulated prices and cutting government subsidies to state-owned enterprises will stimulate competition and facilitate the optimization of their operations," the IMF stated.

SOCAR and Gran Tierra Energy Inc. signed a Production Sharing Agreement for the exploration, development, and production of a promising onshore field located in the Guba-Caspian region of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
The document was signed by SOCAR President Rovshan Najaf and Gran Tierra Energy Inc. President and CEO Gary Guidry, Oku.Az reports. 
Azerbaijan is a highly developed oil and gas region with major discoveries and world-class export-ready infrastructure, backed by over a century of oil and gas production history, including some of the world’s earliest and most productive commercial oil extraction projects. This aligns well with our strategy of reducing risks and increasing capital efficiency in regions with proven growth potential. Crucially, Azerbaijan plays a vital role in Europe's energy security by supplying oil and gas to key European markets, and we are pleased with the opportunity to participate in this value chain over the long term," said Gary Guidry. 
The PSA provides significant access rights in a proven region, ensuring access to developed infrastructure and covering an adjacent basin trend supported by common geology, well data, and seismic data, which opens clear prospects for exploration, appraisal, and field development.
Azerbaijan is a world-class oil and gas producing region, centered around some of the world's largest conventional oil and gas fields. The contract area covers a structure approximately 65 kilometers in length, which has already produced over 100 million barrels of oil and more than 200 billion cubic feet of natural gas, highlighting the scale and quality of Azerbaijan's petroleum system.
This will allow Gran Tierra to leverage its proven expertise in exploration, appraisal, development, and optimization, combining the company’s core technical and operational capabilities with strategic access to European markets.
Gran Tierra has secured a 65% working interest (WI) and operatorship in the contract area, which encompasses approximately 0.4 million acres — more than double the company’s current acreage in Ecuador.
Under the PSA, Gran Tierra is granted five years for exploration and appraisal, along with 25 years for the development of any economically viable fields, with an option to extend the development period for an additional five years. The exploration period consists of an initial three-year phase, followed by a second two-year phase. The initial phase includes conducting gravimetric surveys, as well as an obligation to drill two wells and acquire 3D seismic data over an area of 250 km2. The second phase provides for the drilling of two additional wells and the acquisition of 3D seismic data over an additional 250 km2. Upon completion of the initial phase, the Company has the right to proceed to the second phase.
Gran Tierra plans to begin the aerogravimetric survey in 2026, with seismic work and drilling scheduled for 2027. These activities are expected to be funded by the company's projected net cash flow from operating activities.
The agreement will enter into force following ratification by the Milli Majlis of the Republic of Azerbaijan.