On Monday, June 15, Brent oil became cheaper by 5% to $82.8 per barrel, gold became more expensive by 2.8%, to $4,357.8 per ounce, Wall Street is growing — the S&P 500 futures gained 1.2%. Global markets are assessing the flow of news from the Middle East. The US and Iran announced the achievement of a temporary agreement, which is intended to end the 100-day war and open the Strait of Hormuz. Global markets demonstrated a classic reaction to the removal of the geopolitical premium. Similar dynamics were shown by Asian markets: the Japanese Nikkei-225 index approached a historical maximum.
On Tuesday, June 16, the geopolitical factor remained the same, but the trend of declining prices persisted, prices continued adjustment, Brent costs $81.39, retreating by approximately 2% from yesterday's prices. A similar situation is with WTI Crude, which costs $78.7 bar. Thus, the role of the geopolitical factor is not the main one today in forming the main trends of the market.
Crude oil production of OPEC+ fell in May of this year to 28.428 and today to a record low level in the entire history of observations, the production of OPEC declined, amounting to only 16.13 million barrels per day. According to the publication, this is the lowest indicator since 2000. On the contrary, thanks to the leadership of President Trump, oil and gas production in the US reached record high levels. In 2025, crude oil production in the US reached a historical maximum of 13.6 million barrels per day — and it is expected that this trend will continue in 2026.
Global oil production volume (along with other liquid hydrocarbons) in 2025 amounted to approximately 102.5 million barrels per day. At the same time, the share of OPEC+ countries reached almost 56% of global volumes. Global oil production volume in 2026, according to forecasts of leading analytical agencies, is at the level from 99 to 104.7 million barrels per day, the share of OPEC+ countries in global oil production constitutes now about 35–40%.
"Markets have been waiting for this news for several months, and relief is already being felt," Bloomberg quotes Josh Gilbert, leading analyst at eToro for APAC and the Middle East. However, he continues, speaking about full confidence in the stability of peace is premature: "Investors' nerves will not calm down until the agreement is signed."
The fact of the matter is that the peace agreement between the US and Iran so far exists only in words: the parties will publish the official text only after the signing on June 19 in Switzerland. In addition, the interpretation of the arrangements by Washington and Tehran differs cardinally. If Trump speaks of a "Great Deal that brings peace," the Iranian media declare a "US capitulation" and emphasize that control over the strait will allegedly be retained by Iran and Oman.
As for the restoration of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, here the markets have so far taken a wait-and-see position. Dozens of tankers are idling in the region, hundreds of ships are waiting for the opportunity to leave the Persian Gulf. As Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital emphasizes, "physical flows can be launched quickly, but trust does not return that quickly." In practice, according to Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., the return of oil and gas volumes to pre-war levels may take up to three months: shipowners and insurers are in no hurry to return without guarantees of safety and transparency of conditions.
Oil prices are declining sharply on Monday on information about the achievement by the authorities of the US and Iran of arrangements that will allow ending hostilities in the Middle East and restoring the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Representatives of the two countries will sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland, reported the Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif. Pakistan acts as a mediator in the negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
The memorandum is aimed primarily at the cessation of hostilities. The sharpest issues, such as the fate of the Iranian nuclear program, the parties will discuss at later stages. According to the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran Kazem Gharibabadi, 60 days after the signing ceremony are allocated for this.
By 14:30 Moscow time, August futures for Brent were becoming cheaper on the London ICE Futures exchange by $4.39 (5.03%) to $82.94 per barrel.
July futures for WTI by this time were becoming cheaper on the NYMEX exchange by $4.56 (5.37%), to $80.32 per barrel.
Earlier during the trading, the price of Brent dropped to $82.52 per barrel, WTI — to $79.73 per barrel. Prices are at minimums since March 10.