On Thursday, March 5, China unveiled its main development goals for the period 2026-2030 in a government work report presented for review at the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress.
According to the report, over the next five years, China aims to maintain GDP growth within a rational range and set annual targets based on specific conditions. Caspian Energy Media reports with reference to Chinese Xinhua.

This will lay a solid foundation for doubling GDP by 2035 compared to the 2020 level and achieving the status of a moderately developed country, the report states. China has set a target to ensure economic growth of 4.5-5 percent in 2026 and will strive to exceed this target in practice. This is stated in the government work report presented on Thursday for review at the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress.

According to the report, China has outlined other key development targets for the current year: the surveyed urban unemployment rate is set at approximately 5.5%; over 12 million new urban jobs are to be created; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by around 2%; personal income is projected to grow in step with economic growth; the balance of payments will remain generally stable; grain output is targeted to reach approximately 700 million tonnes; and energy consumption per unit of GDP (carbon intensity) is to be reduced by about 3.8%.

To ensure innovative and 'green' development, annual spending in these areas is projected to increase by over 7%, while overall carbon intensity of GDP is targeted to decrease by 17% during the 2026–2030 period.
According to the report, China will also increase the share of added value from key sectors of the digital economy in GDP to 12.5 percent, and raise the expected average life expectancy of the population to 80 years.
To ensure the effective implementation of the goals and objectives of the 15th Five-Year Plan, China has put forward a total of 109 major projects across six sectors, such as directing the development of productive forces of a new quality and ensuring and improving the well-being of the people, the report says.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its February Oil Market Report, stated that global oil supply fell by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, dropping to a total of 106.6 million bpd. This decline was driven by factors such as escalating geopolitical tensions, blizzards and extreme temperatures in North America, as well as reduced oil exports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, recently surpassed the $70 per barrel mark, reaching a new high since September 2025.
Russian oil supplies saw a sharp decrease of 350,000 bpd in January, as its primary buyers reduced imports under pressure from expanded US and EU sanctions. In particular, Indian oil refineries have intensified their efforts to secure alternative supply sources, which has had the most significant impact on Russian oil exports. Indian imports of Russian oil fell to 1.1 million bpd in January, marking the lowest level since November 2022 and significantly trailing the 2025 average of 1.7 million bpd.
Venezuelan oil production in January decreased by 210,000 bpd compared to the previous month, totaling 780,000 bpd. However, the market anticipates a swift recovery in Venezuelan output following the US government's authorization for US-registered companies to export Venezuelan crude.
Furthermore, extreme cold weather in January led to the shut-in of over 1 million bpd of production capacity in North America. Operations at Kazakhstan’s key oil export terminals have been suspended for an extended period since last November. In January, Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, Tengiz, was forced to temporarily halt operations due to a fire. This incident resulted in a reduction of light crude supply and contributed to the rise in international oil prices. Caspian Energy Media reports with reference to shpgx.com.
The report indicates that global refinery throughput in January of this year declined to 85.7 million bpd, down from a record high of 86.3 million bpd in December 2025. This decrease was attributed to seasonal maintenance and a decline in refining margins.
Global oil inventories increased by 37 million barrels in December 2025, bringing the total inventory growth for the year to 477 million barrels. In OECD countries, oil stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels last December—a counter-seasonal increase that, for the first time since 2021, exceeded the five-year average. It is projected that global oil inventories will increase by an additional 49 million barrels in January.
The report forecasts a significant recovery in global oil supply through the end of 2026, following the sharp decline seen in January. Global oil demand is projected to grow by 850,000 bpd in 2026, up from 770,000 bpd in 2025. This demand growth will be driven entirely by non-OECD countries. Furthermore, petrochemical feedstocks are expected to account for more than 50% of the demand growth in 2026, compared to one-third in 2025.
Following a global production increase of nearly 3.1 million bpd in 2025, the report estimates that world oil output will rise by 2.4 million bpd in 2026, reaching a total of 108.6 million bpd. This growth is expected to be split equally between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producing nations. Finally, global refinery throughput is projected to grow by an average of 790,000 bpd in 2026, reaching 84.6 million bpd, primarily driven by capacity increases in non-OECD countries.

Meanwhile, oil-producing nations within OPEC+ have reaffirmed their plan to maintain current production quotas through the end of March this year. Against this backdrop, global oil supplies are expected to recover in the coming months. Overall, world oil supply is projected to increase by 2.4 million bpd this year, with non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ countries each contributing 50% of this growth, provided that OPEC+ adheres to its existing production agreement.
Due to economic uncertainty and rising oil prices dampening consumption, the report slightly revised down the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 850,000 bpd. China remains the largest source of growth, with an annual increase of approximately 200,000 bpd.
The report indicates that due to a persistent supply surplus, global oil inventories increased by an additional 37 million barrels in December 2025, reaching a record level of 477 million barrels for the year. However, given the seasonal decline in refinery utilization rates from the record highs seen in December, alongside the ongoing recovery in oil supply, the shifting dynamics of global oil supply and demand remain to be fully evaluated.

Growth rates slowed in 2025, while inflation accelerated. Hydrocarbon production declined significantly last year, and growth in the non-resource sector decelerated due to the indirect impact of falling hydrocarbon prices and the normalization of investment from previous high levels. Overall, real GDP growth slowed to 1.4%, compared to 4.2% in 2024.

Driven largely by external factors, inflation temporarily exceeded the upper limit of the target range before returning to within that range in the second half of 2025. Credit growth slowed significantly in 2025, while banks remain well-capitalized and profitable. The combined reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) and the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) increased from $70 billion at the end of 2024 to $85 billion by the end of 2025.
Looking ahead, GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 amid continued weakness in oil and gas production and a slight acceleration in non-oil GDP growth, before stabilizing at 2.5% in the medium term. Inflation is projected to decline to 5.0% by the end of 2026 and to 4.0% by the end of 2027, provided that external inflationary pressures ease and fiscal consolidation continues.
The external position is expected to weaken, with the trade surplus narrowing due to declining oil production. However, the current account balance is projected to remain positive throughout 2026–2027. The combined reserves of the CBA and SOFAZ will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. According to the IMF mission’s February report, risks to the outlook remain generally balanced, though external uncertainty remains high.
"Medium-term fiscal consolidation is appropriate and will ensure equity while supporting external sustainability. A clear and comprehensive strategy, based on the identification of specific revenue-enhancing and expenditure-management measures, will bolster the credibility of fiscal consolidation. It is necessary to continue efforts to improve the profitability of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and reduce subsidies, rationalize tax incentives, and strengthen tax administration and compliance monitoring," the document states.

“While inflation is projected to decline, careful monitoring of inflationary risks and responsiveness to inflationary surprises will be essential, given heightened external uncertainty and the still-evolving transmission of monetary policy to the economy. Interbank rates remain close to the policy rate, reflecting the Central Bank’s successful management of excess liquidity. Substantially improving the transmission of monetary policy to the broader economy will require further development of the risk-free yield curve and continued efforts to address long-standing structural issues, such as dollarization, high operating costs, and low competition within the banking sector.”

Maintaining the current level of the countercyclical capital buffer is appropriate given the slowdown in credit growth, while the implementation of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and the planned introduction of the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) will contribute to the resilience of the banking sector. The recent implementation of risk-based supervision will strengthen prudential oversight and, along with the gradual rollout of Basel III and the ongoing improvement of the financial safety net, will bolster financial stability and further enhance public confidence in the banking sector."

"Azerbaijan is appropriately focusing on economic diversification. Expanding the role of the private sector in this diversification, including through the attraction of foreign direct investment, requires deepening capital markets to broaden private sector access to financing and enhancing labor productivity through investment in human capital. Alongside recent progress in monitoring the performance of state-owned enterprises, reducing the role of regulated prices and cutting government subsidies to state-owned enterprises will stimulate competition and facilitate the optimization of their operations," the IMF stated.