Oil prices: When a “minus” turns into a “plus”

Since mid-February, or for almost eight months, the price of Brent crude has not fallen below $70 and has increased by 65.7% compared with the end of 2025. In October, it exceeded $115 per barrel, whereas 2025 ended at $60.85 per barrel. According to Eurostat, eurozone inflation reached 3.3% in August, its highest level since September 2023. Energy prices alone rose by 14.3% year-on-year.
That is precisely why the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 2.50%. In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s rate was set at 3.75–4% on September 16, while at its October 27–28 meeting, it is already expected to remain unchanged.
Euronews’ analysis of oil consumption across European countries reveals the extent of their dependence on rising prices in global markets, where any conflict in producing regions changes the distribution of value added across industrial economies, highlighting their vulnerability.
In 2024, the European Union imported 471.3 million tonnes of crude oil, while its own production amounted to just 15.5 million tonnes.
Overall, the EU’s dependence on imported oil reached 96.6%, according to Eurostat.
The United States, Kazakhstan and Norway became the three largest suppliers, each accounting for between 12% and 15% of imports.
They were followed by Libya, with more than 9%; Saudi Arabia, with 6.8%; and Nigeria and Iraq, with 5.8% each.
Only around 7% of the EU’s crude oil imports in 2025 came from the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, according to data from the Council of the European Union.
In terms of import volumes, the Netherlands far outstrips other European countries. According to Eurostat data for 2024, the country imported 138.3 million tonnes of oil and petroleum products.
Germany ranked second, with 117.8 million tonnes, followed by Spain with 85.8 million tonnes, France with 82.4 million tonnes, Italy with 73.3 million tonnes, and Belgium with 56.7 million tonnes.
However, these figures require clarification. Rotterdam is one of the world’s largest energy hubs. A significant share of the oil arriving at Dutch ports is refined or transported onward to other European countries.
Of the Netherlands’ 138.3 million tonnes of imports, 101.1 million tonnes were re-exported. Belgium also re-exported more than half of the volumes it purchased.
Germany is a major importer in real terms, owing to the scale of its industrial economy, transport network and oil refining sector.
Spain, France and Italy also purchase significant volumes to meet domestic consumption needs and support the operations of major refineries.
According to Eurostat, Germany accounted for 20.1% of final consumption of oil and petroleum products in the EU in 2024. France ranked second, at 15.3%, while Italy and Spain each accounted for 11.1%.
Together, these four economies consumed almost 58% of the EU’s total volume. Import volumes show which countries purchase the most oil, but they do not reveal which economies will be hit hardest.
A more useful indicator of vulnerability compares net energy imports with the size and structure of a national economy.
Therefore, Eurostat calculates the energy raw materials trade balance as a share of GDP deficit. In 2025, Malta recorded the largest deficit in the EU, amounting to 5.4% of the country’s economic output. It was followed by Bulgaria, with a deficit of 3.5% of GDP; Croatia, at 3.4%; Hungary, at 2.9%; Belgium, at 2.6%; Luxembourg, at 2.5%; and Cyprus, at 2.4%.
The major economies were positioned closer to the middle of the ranking. Italy’s energy trade deficit was equivalent to 1.9% of GDP, followed by Spain and Poland, at 1.7% each. Germany and France each recorded a deficit of 1.5%.
The smallest deficit was recorded by Denmark, at 0.1% of GDP, followed by Sweden at 0.5% and the Netherlands at 0.6%.
Denmark benefits from its own oil and gas production, while the Netherlands’ position reflects its role as a major refining and re-export hub.
Spain’s dependence on oil imports—the share of consumption covered by net imports—reached 100.3% in 2024.
In Portugal, this figure stood at 99.9%, while in Ireland it was 101%.
All three economies are almost entirely dependent on imported oil or petroleum products.
Malta imported 99.6% of its oil requirements in 2024. Cyprus’ import dependence stood at 97.3%.
Their vulnerability is heightened by the significant share of transport, aviation and tourism in their economies.
Almost two-thirds of the oil consumed in the EU is used in the transport sector.
Road transport alone accounted for 47.7% of total consumption in 2024, according to the Council of the European Union. Aviation accounted for a further 9.2%, while maritime transport accounted for 8.4%.
This structure is particularly important for Southern European countries.
Rising jet fuel prices increase the costs of airlines serving Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus and Malta.
Higher diesel prices affect hotels, restaurants and retail through increased logistics and supply chain costs.
Initially, tourism companies may absorb some of these costs. However, if oil prices remain above the $100 mark, the additional costs are more likely to be passed on to consumers through higher airfares and accommodation prices, Euronews believes.
Denmark has the lowest dependence on imported oil, at 58.1%, followed by Romania at 77% and Hungary at 83.5%. Italy’s figure stands at 89.8%, Germany’s at 96.9%, and France’s at 99.8%. However, since these countries are members of the eurozone, financial and reserve mechanisms activated by regulators make it possible to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices on the economy’s manufacturing sector. Exports are stimulated through a lower euro exchange rate, fiscal barriers are removed, and export markets expand through the activation and development of the transport sector. Therefore, for flexible, growing economies, at least those within the eurozone and the European Economic Area, rising oil prices are not fundamentally critical; on the contrary, they help identify new sources of growth. Even if primary energy prices continue to rise, a shift towards renewable energy sources, rationality and innovation will make it possible to mitigate the long-standing dependence and even shift the investment focus, as has already been observed among major banks and investment funds from an environmental perspective, which has also gained an opportunity to resonate in an inspiring tone.
As for the United States, an analysis conducted by OGJ in August showed that the 38 US producers and refiners included in the OGJ sample reported combined second-quarter revenue of $439.1 billion, up from $299.3 billion a year earlier, and net income of $62.2 billion, compared with $22.3 billion. Revenue for the six-month period amounted to $752.7 billion, compared with $598.1 billion, while net income reached $80.5 billion, compared with $41.5 billion. Capital and exploration expenditures in the first half of the year amounted to $59.8 billion, compared with $54.3 billion.
However, oil companies are not the only ones benefiting.
In a statement to Hearst Television, the Department of the Interior reported that energy production on federal lands and in federal waters generated $7.53 billion for the US Treasury, more than $6.6 billion for states, and over $1 billion for conservation efforts in fiscal year 2026.
For comparison, the Department of the Interior reported distributing $5.01 billion to the Treasury and $4.07 billion to states in fiscal year 2025.
In a way, the US economy is restoring lost manufacturing capacity. This has been facilitated by President Trump’s tariffs, which have made domestic production more profitable than imports.
On the other hand, risks are mitigated by reserve and strategic oil storage facilities, which influence the fundamental market mechanisms of price formation.
Therefore, even though Hearst Television’s Get the Facts found that gasoline prices had risen by more than 50% in 20 states since the start of the war on February 28, and according to estimates by Brown University, Americans had spent almost $143 billion more on gasoline and diesel than they would have without the war with Iran, if these funds are directed to where they are intended—to the US economy—no external factors will affect its ambitions as the world’s largest economy.