The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its February Oil Market Report, stated that global oil supply fell by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, dropping to a total of 106.6 million bpd. This decline was driven by factors such as escalating geopolitical tensions, blizzards and extreme temperatures in North America, as well as reduced oil exports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, recently surpassed the $70 per barrel mark, reaching a new high since September 2025.
Russian oil supplies saw a sharp decrease of 350,000 bpd in January, as its primary buyers reduced imports under pressure from expanded US and EU sanctions. In particular, Indian oil refineries have intensified their efforts to secure alternative supply sources, which has had the most significant impact on Russian oil exports. Indian imports of Russian oil fell to 1.1 million bpd in January, marking the lowest level since November 2022 and significantly trailing the 2025 average of 1.7 million bpd.
Venezuelan oil production in January decreased by 210,000 bpd compared to the previous month, totaling 780,000 bpd. However, the market anticipates a swift recovery in Venezuelan output following the US government's authorization for US-registered companies to export Venezuelan crude.
Furthermore, extreme cold weather in January led to the shut-in of over 1 million bpd of production capacity in North America. Operations at Kazakhstan’s key oil export terminals have been suspended for an extended period since last November. In January, Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, Tengiz, was forced to temporarily halt operations due to a fire. This incident resulted in a reduction of light crude supply and contributed to the rise in international oil prices. Caspian Energy Media reports with reference to shpgx.com.
The report indicates that global refinery throughput in January of this year declined to 85.7 million bpd, down from a record high of 86.3 million bpd in December 2025. This decrease was attributed to seasonal maintenance and a decline in refining margins.
Global oil inventories increased by 37 million barrels in December 2025, bringing the total inventory growth for the year to 477 million barrels. In OECD countries, oil stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels last December—a counter-seasonal increase that, for the first time since 2021, exceeded the five-year average. It is projected that global oil inventories will increase by an additional 49 million barrels in January.
The report forecasts a significant recovery in global oil supply through the end of 2026, following the sharp decline seen in January. Global oil demand is projected to grow by 850,000 bpd in 2026, up from 770,000 bpd in 2025. This demand growth will be driven entirely by non-OECD countries. Furthermore, petrochemical feedstocks are expected to account for more than 50% of the demand growth in 2026, compared to one-third in 2025.
Following a global production increase of nearly 3.1 million bpd in 2025, the report estimates that world oil output will rise by 2.4 million bpd in 2026, reaching a total of 108.6 million bpd. This growth is expected to be split equally between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producing nations. Finally, global refinery throughput is projected to grow by an average of 790,000 bpd in 2026, reaching 84.6 million bpd, primarily driven by capacity increases in non-OECD countries.

Meanwhile, oil-producing nations within OPEC+ have reaffirmed their plan to maintain current production quotas through the end of March this year. Against this backdrop, global oil supplies are expected to recover in the coming months. Overall, world oil supply is projected to increase by 2.4 million bpd this year, with non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ countries each contributing 50% of this growth, provided that OPEC+ adheres to its existing production agreement.
Due to economic uncertainty and rising oil prices dampening consumption, the report slightly revised down the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 850,000 bpd. China remains the largest source of growth, with an annual increase of approximately 200,000 bpd.
The report indicates that due to a persistent supply surplus, global oil inventories increased by an additional 37 million barrels in December 2025, reaching a record level of 477 million barrels for the year. However, given the seasonal decline in refinery utilization rates from the record highs seen in December, alongside the ongoing recovery in oil supply, the shifting dynamics of global oil supply and demand remain to be fully evaluated.