The continued decline of the Caspian Sea—an extraordinary inland water body with its own endemic flora and fauna shaped over millions of years—could increase the number of landlocked countries from 32 to 35 if the drying trend does not stop, mirroring what has already occurred with the Aral Sea in Kazakhstan and Lake Urmia in Iran. The forecasts are far from reassuring: “The water level in the Caspian Sea will continue to decline over the next three to five years,” stated Igor Shumakov, head of Roshydromet, during a meeting of the Caspian Coordination Committee on Hydrometeorology (CASPCOM) in Saint Petersburg.
According to him, over the past decade, the water level in the Caspian Sea has dropped by two meters, a development considered critical for the region, reports AZERTAC citing TASS. At the same time, it remains unclear whether water levels will rise again in the coming years, as they have in the past. Scientists and experts from this organization, along with specialists from other Caspian littoral countries, are developing climate models to determine the duration of the desiccation process and to prepare recommendations for sustainable economic development in the region.
I. Shumakov emphasized that the declining water level in the Caspian Sea reflects broader global climate change and is accompanied by an increase in hazardous hydrometeorological events, which inflict damage on economies as well as on the lives and health of citizens across the Northern Hemisphere. The CASPCOM session was held on September 4–5, with participation of representatives from the national hydrometeorological services of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan.
Until recently, the Caspian littoral states were primarily concerned with the division of the sea’s resources, demarcation lines, and the presence of foreign powers. Today, the very existence of the water body has become the central issue. The matter has been raised to the highest level, with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expressing concern over the Caspian’s situation. “The situation in the Caspian Sea, where a decline in water levels is being recorded, is close to an environmental catastrophe. The issue may become a priority for consultations within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) format,” said Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the SCO Plus summit on September 1 in Tianjin, China.
“Today, within the framework of such a representative forum, I want to draw your attention to a very delicate but serious topic. This is the deplorable situation surrounding the Caspian Sea. The situation is approaching an environmental catastrophe. This issue could become a priority for long-term consultations within the SCO,” the presidential press service cited from his speech.
Tokayev reminded that he had previously proposed creating a Center for Water Issues Analysis in Kazakhstan’s capital under the auspices of the SCO. He said, “A UN Center for Sustainable Development of Central Asian Countries and Afghanistan has recently been inaugurated in Almaty with the participation of the UN Secretary-General. This confirms our strong commitment to the principles of multilateral diplomacy. Taking this opportunity, I would like to inform all partners of the decision to hold a Regional Environmental Summit in Astana in April 2026 in partnership with the UN.”
The level of the Caspian Sea, which has been monitored instrumentally since 1837, has fluctuated over time, reaching a peak in 1882 and a minimum in 1977 (−29.01 m). In 1978, it began to rise again, reaching −27 m. Since 2006, a steady decline has been observed, continuing to the present day, and by 2023–2025 it has reached a historical minimum over the past 400 years (−29.5 m). The main causes of the Caspian Sea’s decline are considered to be human impact, climate change, reduced river inflow, and rising air temperatures, which increase evaporation. If the decline is not halted, the risk of irreversible processes will grow, and the climate will change not only in the Caspian region but across the entire continent. The risk is significant, as there are already precedents. On the agenda is a thorough study of the main causes of the drying of water bodies—namely the Aral Sea, Lake Urmia, and the Caspian Sea—with the aim of developing a model for future developments and identifying effective methods to prevent a potential large-scale environmental catastrophe.
